A portfolio analyst extrapolates the team's burn-up and tells the steering group that the remaining ninety backlog items will be finished in exactly eleven Sprints, so the dependent contracts can be signed now. The Scrum Master is asked to comment. What is the soundest thing to say?

Professional Scrum Master I, objective 3. Managing products with agility hard

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The options

Correct The chart is useful evidence of what has already happened, but in a complex environment what will happen is unknown, so the projection should be re-inspected every Sprint rather than treated as fact

Correct. Forecasting practices are explicitly said not to replace empiricism; they summarise past events, and past events are the only legitimate input to a forward-looking decision.

Not correct The projection is reliable because it is derived from the team's own measured data rather than from opinion

Wrong, and it is the seductive answer. Measured data makes the projection honest about the past; it does not make the future knowable, because the work itself keeps changing what remains.

Not correct The projection is invalid because Scrum does not allow forecasting beyond the current Sprint

Wrong. Scrum forecasts happily across a Product Goal — what it refuses is the pretence of certainty. Banning longer-range forecasting is not the framework's position.

Not correct The Scrum Master should ask the Developers to raise their velocity so the eleven-Sprint figure can be met

Wrong on two counts. It turns a forecast into a target, and it has the Scrum Master directing the Developers' pace, which is neither the accountability nor the way to get honest data.

Why

Empiricism is the mechanism: decisions rest on observation, and the only observations available are of things that have already occurred. A burn-up encodes those observations neatly, which is why it is easy to mistake for a prediction. The line to carry into the exam is that forecasting practices are proven useful and still do not replace empiricism — so a forecast is re-made from fresh evidence each Sprint, never signed as a promise.

Where this comes from

Cited
Scrum Guide section The Sprint
What it says
In complex environments, what will happen is unknown. Only what has already happened may be used for forward-looking decision making.

Practise this

Reading one question is not practice. The trainer will draw a set from objective 3 and space the ones you get wrong.

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